Fourteen players from the Chicago Red Stars will be able to sit back and relax as representatives from the newly minted Atlanta Beat and Philadelphia Independence franchises each siphon off up to nine players from their collective rivals.

In preparation for Tuesday’s WPS expansion draft, the Chicago Red Stars have protected the maximum allotment of 10 players from among its 22-woman roster of active and developmental players and its two discovery players, Lotta Schelin of Sweden and England’s Stacey Tullock.

In addition, ASN has learned that four Red Stars players are currently signed to one-year contracts and will become free agents on September 30th, rendering them ineligible for selection in the expansion draft. However, since WPS maintains a Masonic veil of secrecy over all things related to this draft, the identity of those four players remains a mystery—at least for another fortnight—a move possibly designed to protect the sensitivity of its players as well as hide any bone-headed decisions made by its general managers.

But that won’t prevent us from applying a few simple rules of deductive reasoning to venture an educated guess as to who those four players are.
We already can assume who they are not: the three national team allocations—Lindsay Tarpley, Carli Lloyd and Kate Markgraf—and any players selected in the first four rounds of the WPS draft.

Among the latter are Megan Rapinoe and Danesha Adams in the first round, Ella Masar, Nikki Krzysik and Brittany Klein in the second, Natalie Spilger and Marian Dalmy in the third, and Ifeoma Dieke and Chioma Igwe in the fourth.

So then, what kinds of players are typically offered one-year deals? Generally, it’s players at the end of their careers, players with unproven records and those of questionable fitness.

The obvious focus for the untrained eye would be toward the four developmental players. But these players aren’t compensated nearly as well as the active roster and it would make no sense to develop a player just to watch her become a free agent a year later.

Frida Östberg and Caroline Jönsson are two of the oldest players on this year’s roster and rumors have been floating about that Östberg is ready to retire and that her countrywoman could also follow her back to Sweden. They both fit the profile of players at the ends of their careers, although Jönsson, a goalkeeper who turns 32 in November, still has a few good years between the posts left in her.

Jill Oakes was released by FC Gold Pride, a team not known for its excessive depth of talent, and picked up by the Red Stars after the start of the season. Under those circumstances, would they offer her a multi-year contract? I wouldn’t think so.

Heather Garriock already had a history of injuries as a player Down Under but was supposed to be fully recuperated when she was selected in the second round (12th overall) of the WPS International Draft. But her curse of injuries continued stateside and she missed most of this season with quad and ankle injuries. Did the Red Stars cover their bet with a one-year deal? Talk to Marcia McDermott’s hand.

In a best-case scenario, Atlanta and Philly will first choose to plunder Stacey Tullock, who never bothered to show up at camp last spring.